Consumer confidence rises in Florida, falls nationally, surveys find

Conference board index

DELRAY BEACH — Confidence among Florida consumers was on the rise in October. Nationally, however, it was a different story, according to separate reports released Tuesday.

The University of Florida’s statewide consumer confidence index gained 3 points to a reading of 80, while the Conference Board’s national index fell 3.9 points to 95.6. The index was at 111.9 in July.

With the holiday shopping season approaching, the reports take on additional significance as they tend to predict consumer spending.

UF survey director Chris McCarty said the October increase puts the Florida index in line with the national sentiment as measured by the University of Michigan’s survey. Both the UF and UM surveys use the same methodology.

“The source of the rise in Florida appears to be low-income households,” driven by improved personal finances and improved expectations for the next year. McCarty said. “Confidence among that group had been quite low.”

McCarty said consumers might be factoring in the tax relief package the Legislature has promised to deliver, plus a brief reprieve from rising gasoline prices. However, gasoline is on the rise and likely will continue to rise as the holiday shopping season approaches.

“Next month’s consumer confidence will be telling,” McCarty said. “Retailers will very likely slash prices early to get otherwise hesitant consumers in the door.”

Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center, said weakening business conditions is the culprit behind the drop in confidence and might be a prelude to lackluster job growth.

“In addition, consumers are growing more pessimistic about the short-term future and their rather bleak outlook suggests a less than stellar ending to this year," Franco said.

Consumers' assessment of present conditions weakened further in October. Those claiming conditions are "good" decreased to 23.4 percent from 25.7 percent.

 However, those saying conditions are "bad" decreased to 16.3 percent from 17.8 percent. Overall, consumers were less upbeat in their appraisal of the job market. Those saying jobs are "hard to get" increased to 22.6 percent from 22.4 percent. Those claiming jobs are "plentiful" decreased to 24.1 percent from 25.6 percent in September.